TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,604,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,741,164

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,604,478 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 535 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x674a…d582backed No1c509,409$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc875…f8a7backed No0c325,554$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1229…7432backed No0c314,766$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…87cbbacked No0c237,727$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.28450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+68.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa03e…269bbacked No6c144,527$7,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,958.771060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed18…9c79backed No12c118,075$14,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,693.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x792f…a740backed No0c115,193$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1199…d5f9backed No0c114,877$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc16e…efb3backed No0c107,942$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3eb3backed No0c99,070$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e1…91d0backed No0c97,440$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4348…31bcbacked No0c96,324$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd700…26c9backed No0c94,995$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b17…f7fbbacked No0c87,051$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8673…ea41backed No0c76,024$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d4…448abacked No0c71,012$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda18…5267backed No0c60,130$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed No0c60,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa55c…cae9backed No0c58,768$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1add…07cabacked No0c57,709$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6768…f373backed No0c54,612$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes44c52,867$23,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,379.812853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde53…27d2backed No1c50,617$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked No0c50,100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f8…4e45backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18e0…da94backed No0c49,589$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes77c49,133$37,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,444.91030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6936…bdd7backed No0c48,750$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3769…2799backed No0c46,656$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No49c44,040$21,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,493.641330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebd1…3cb0backed No0c42,433$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed Yes52c42,299$21,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,438.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e20…04e2backed No0c40,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b00…8a5dbacked No0c39,155$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c5c…f2f8backed No0c38,412$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes75c37,998$28,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,488.121361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a7f…0218backed No0c37,000$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ea…4b2fbacked No0c35,883$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed No1c33,918$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa59a…e37cbacked No0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4232…4159backed No0c32,188$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x946d…5f59backed No56c31,628$17,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,560.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd4…5beabacked No0c31,467$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da3…5fcfbacked No0c31,409$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+253.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7355…12efbacked No0c30,400$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d6…ea93backed No0c29,752$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdd…f771backed No0c28,415$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda99…ac6bbacked No0c28,333$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e4…1c24backed No0c26,179$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…79e6backed No1c25,844$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1edd…d9b5backed No0c25,642$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No7c25,275$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.127222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ba…28cabacked No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bb…fc6cbacked No0c24,520$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ab8…3357backed No0c23,140$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes53c23,040$12,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,762.655632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba9…d502backed No1c22,605$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa881…de70backed No0c22,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5c…e0fcbacked No0c22,032$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb5b…a019backed No1c21,407$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a9…a3c7backed No0c21,123$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38cb…2752backed No0c21,045$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe43f…c06fbacked No0c20,884$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No51c20,139$10,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,229.68864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1c7…2ef5backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd03…4294backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa00…2dbcbacked No0c20,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked No0c19,700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.75113.7%7 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No29c18,307$5,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,371.032548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cbf…0ec0backed No0c17,611$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x25ed…c9d4backed No0c17,155$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad19…b625backed No0c17,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed No35c16,806$5,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,937.23850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked No4c16,794$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.454641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11ec…0b11backed No0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1495…a0b4backed No0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bce…96aabacked No0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf13d…e84cbacked Yes37c16,666$6,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,514.61742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x259a…991dbacked No2c16,477$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe09…5c1ebacked No0c16,213$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed No0c15,005$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x989d…f973backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a10…9724backed No0c14,750$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3560…45c7backed No1c14,648$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba4…0087backed No1c14,525$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f8…783dbacked No0c14,167$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No30c14,161$4,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,197.725731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7a2…0f38backed No72c13,913$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344d…1278backed No1c13,468$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e2…16c6backed No0c13,333$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+115.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No2c13,000$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26610723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed No10c12,740$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.33714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-81.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bfd…98f7backed No0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No52c12,364$6,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,476.521346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf00…33a7backed No4c12,170$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.341741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed No1c12,109$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.074228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed2f…6ccbbacked No0c11,667$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2162…ccf7backed No0c11,667$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No64c11,539$7,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,367.46450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ac…7b99backed Yes36c11,110$3,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,131.461050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.