World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e883365bd8b2620b35812309d093bc62322bdd2ccdb4404762da6bb7cf029ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 5,825$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 69c | 2,268$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed Yes | 51c | 1,565$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…6c98backed No | 3c | 1,253$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 1,126$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.73 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 2c | 914$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 837.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 21c | 749.29$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 34c | 697.04$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 79c | 569.35$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 64c | 548.31$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.84 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed Yes | 71c | 526.1$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 64c | 515.74$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.98 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d3…4356backed Yes | 73c | 350$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b84…ce7abacked No | 48c | 343$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1,487.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 75c | 311.43$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…64e7backed No | 3c | 286.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 75c | 266.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…77e6backed Yes | 63c | 241$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 79c | 189.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…0e74backed No | 18c | 150.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…1636backed Yes | 73c | 115.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 24c | 115.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 20c | 109.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…c116backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 26c | 88.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 30c | 82.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 24c | 74.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 33c | 65.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 63c | 64.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49c9backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2f33backed Yes | 63c | 57.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…1cecbacked Yes | 66c | 40.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…d646backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 60c | 25.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe156…d7a6backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…9439backed Yes | 79c | 12.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the July meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.