World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc3c3fc2b67f771fe0c2e749d3dbce7d8cc21cebce50cd63471f69c00a0dafa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,074$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 19c | 2,578$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…f8aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,855$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 14c | 1,425$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.57 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,136$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…a800backed Yes | 3c | 1,036$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 67c | 845.4$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.39 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 3c | 640.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ab…a338backed Yes | 29c | 540.91$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 16c | 520$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 9c | 516.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…64e7backed Yes | 4c | 511.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…0e74backed Yes | 32c | 497$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…bddfbacked Yes | 30c | 470.51$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 29c | 450$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 361$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 14c | 347.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 7c | 345.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 73c | 287$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…115fbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 241.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…77e6backed Yes | 32c | 241$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 17c | 228.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 43c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b7…9341backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 20c | 157.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 16c | 116$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 77c | 107.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 33c | 107.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…4822backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 82.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 25c | 64.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b84…ce7abacked Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1,487.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2f33backed Yes | 33c | 57.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 25c | 51.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 72c | 47.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…7c59backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the July meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the July meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.