World Politics · resolved market
Record low border encounters in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a91941b516606a732a9b0f49682b6debb3b23b5c3797e8988a3d3d2706dd55b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,361$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 15c | 6,108$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.38 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,616$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 2c | 919$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 13c | 789.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 11c | 633.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 378$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 339.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 4c | 303.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 25c | 225.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 73c | 136.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…eaa7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 20c | 56.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 74c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.