TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,208,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,187,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,208,854 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x259d…94ebbacked No59c176,556$104,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,859.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f4…d0e7backed Yes44c93,341$41,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,070.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28b…2873backed No47c83,539$39,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,275.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc70d…0880backed Yes53c83,539$44,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,275.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe918…8009backed Yes37c83,215$30,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,789.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc620…070fbacked Yes53c38,132$20,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,209.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1405…de5ebacked No47c38,132$17,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,209.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2da…682bbacked No47c33,428$15,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,716.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x072e…054cbacked Yes53c33,428$17,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,716.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe072…125dbacked No58c31,203$18,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,105.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb953…0ce9backed Yes42c31,203$13,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,105.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes46c30,102$13,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,986.957646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb0e…2d95backed Yes58c29,122$16,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,890.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfab8…a6d6backed No42c29,122$12,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,890.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2d…2fe3backed No60c29,100$17,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,6401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc1d…f405backed Yes40c29,100$11,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,64020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No56c18,798$10,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,248.365756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes38c11,334$4,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,360.0641238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No56c10,566$5,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,667.3510056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No52c10,192$5,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,910.676634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb4…d639backed Yes0c8,900$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.970%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No74c7,697$5,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,978.3517633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed No47c7,592$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,992825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes41c7,346$3,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,043.853221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0df7…d154backed No44c6,335$2,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,571.82650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbef6…9380backed Yes40c6,151$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,475.13540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3740…575abacked No67c5,207$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed No43c5,168$2,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.847051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes40c5,007$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.058820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes51c4,985$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.0737533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes16c4,822$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.265928.8%17 W · 42 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9841…5189backed Yes66c4,455$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,950.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes28c3,897$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.3816854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c3,866$2,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.2869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddf9…6b5ebacked Yes39c3,758$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes1c3,714$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.142321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No42c3,435$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.893253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa198…106abacked Yes43c2,774$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.161770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x387a…ff69backed Yes56c2,623$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf577…8f24backed No54c2,374$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35f6…4f56backed No68c2,371$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.111163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd570…8a06backed Yes12c2,353$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes16c2,300$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.862035%7 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+951.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes21c2,089$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.826526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c9…bdb6backed Yes47c2,064$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb6…93f6backed Yes51c2,001$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa7…5455backed No56c1,964$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No47c1,946$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.629347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No22c1,937$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.1210632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No27c1,907$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.986251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecab…6a63backed Yes8c1,877$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67a9…4dc4backed Yes47c1,834$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.2150%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No55c1,809$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.155265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes29c1,762$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.195740.4%23 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No55c1,750$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.369746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb32d…d135backed Yes41c1,705$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.0320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes29c1,603$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4672339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1188…bb30backed Yes58c1,598$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88db…2340backed No63c1,588$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes30c1,577$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.045135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53fa…f0dcbacked No53c1,544$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No33c1,505$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.864744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+52.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf23a…d3f8backed No55c1,455$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.551181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick63cpaid+42.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes52c1,448$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb05f…2faabacked Yes45c1,426$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3aea…e962backed Yes40c1,421$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9266…7562backed No53c1,414$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes15c1,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6231…a89fbacked Yes71c1,300$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32be…58dbbacked Yes43c1,297$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.7580%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes55c1,285$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.8510630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27e4…828bbacked No60c1,264$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed No25c1,240$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.514431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ee…e3d2backed No60c1,226$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes52c1,214$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.286021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac8…96d2backed No40c1,200$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-69%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes71c1,185$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.066842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes43c1,174$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.0418746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c1,156$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.293989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c96…f26abacked No54c1,095$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.37955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b5…590cbacked No27c1,067$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick25cpaid+121.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes19c1,037$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes32c1,013$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.1739522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes8c1,004$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3214742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7105343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8980…e844backed No27c1,000$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.78933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes9c999.47$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.46618.2%12 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81fa…41c9backed No55c952.42$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.57812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2b…6752backed Yes6c947.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61d…5446backed Yes48c946.96$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.78742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed Yes14c944.77$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.54531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3694…950fbacked No42c923.48$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.36714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-65.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e4…e635backed Yes39c919$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ae…9b16backed No49c878$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.781729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5098…f59ebacked Yes58c858.91$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa8…f8a0backed Yes47c842$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+25%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No59c834.65$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.5222347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd8…0e43backed Yes47c796$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6000…8124backed No54c774$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdfd…2121backed No60c740$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+109.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.