TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$659,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$611,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,356 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 266 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes8c79,398$6,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,084.736439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No35c31,491$11,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,347.069334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes70c23,279$16,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,363.171735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes69c18,069$12,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,545.1228430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked No46c16,987$7,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,187.962045%9 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+2,378.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes9c14,107$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.8513918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c13,043$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.455132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf69…356ebacked Yes0c12,835$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b6…3f65backed No24c12,436$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,435.651118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81bb…a17ebacked No35c11,548$4,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,480.71338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick20cpaid+115.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Yes79c10,874$8,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,583.382231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes54c10,474$5,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,660.355925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4976…d25cbacked Yes47c9,875$4,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,655.831241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c9,161$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.521494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes2c8,297$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4516535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes45c7,981$3,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,586.1710127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed Yes48c7,719$3,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,706.522236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes56c6,487$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,660.3943243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes62c6,391$3,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,942.065437%20 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No46c5,932$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,212.084540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes73c5,797$4,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,214.548932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No10c5,523$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,970.3911850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No57c5,427$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes61c5,269$3,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.179237%34 W · 58 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No19c5,239$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,223.6612345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes0c5,080$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.68229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes34c3,246$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.342927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No15c2,990$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.3818036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a56…03a1backed No19c2,597$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,097.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+419.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes47c2,587$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.2731534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No38c2,484$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.0319043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes39c2,432$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.518047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ca…bf9dbacked Yes49c2,342$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed Yes43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005046%23 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes43c2,251$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.352913.8%4 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-8.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes33c2,071$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.3311247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Yes5c2,036$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.892634.6%9 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.27per pick8cpaid+854.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96012133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28019957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed No38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2405230.8%16 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes51c1,994$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.9525337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes45c1,973$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.023534.3%12 W · 23 L-8.2wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-46.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes3c1,889$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.394327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+189.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes15c1,820$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.912445.8%11 W · 13 L+7.4wins+0.31per pick15cpaid+216.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes25c1,748$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.843010%3 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ad4…fb70backed No67c1,653$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes69c1,643$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.628440.5%34 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba8…97afbacked Yes63c1,586$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No54c1,514$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.875420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0cf…d6e0backed Yes64c1,512$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf60c…d290backed Yes33c1,508$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes39c1,500$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58014632.2%47 W · 99 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No45c1,311$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.4514240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No54c1,302$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.4588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No21c1,280$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.237117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Yes77c1,252$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.323046.7%14 W · 16 L-5.4wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed No68c1,162$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c1,100$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.554934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed No52c1,053$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.482339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb728…1820backed Yes73c1,030$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes40c979$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.753432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843c…8405backed Yes69c951.67$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.71827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes80c939.52$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.366633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed Yes75c871.71$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.221758.8%10 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick72cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes17c822$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.747225%18 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+262.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes17c822$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.747335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked No48c809.98$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.191942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick21cpaid+52.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc358…1015backed Yes46c800$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3693732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a2a…43d5backed Yes73c797.47$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-52.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes30c716.08$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.5848224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed Yes62c700.46$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.152839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes74c673$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.08333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b7…4947backed No36c650.99$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+128.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked No55c641.9$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.875935.6%21 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes40c640$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.424736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes63c625.64$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.157828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes76c600$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4538035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes44c568.16$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.993925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes60c566.68$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.181,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc64f…33d6backed Yes46c543.48$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6718…a38ebacked Yes66c513.47$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.8920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No62c511.59$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.963228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf2a…8d43backed No27c500$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+69.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cb6…93f6backed Yes56c489.03$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.411855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1721…51f3backed Yes63c477.68$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes45c467.55$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.56735.8%24 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No19c461.3$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.719742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3e…692abacked Yes54c457$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.251936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes67c448.5$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.521833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-45.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No61c442$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.7612332.5%40 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes36c431.62$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5217524.6%43 W · 132 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24820325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes14c400$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes77c400$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3062536%9 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes30c389.24$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6511039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No65c377$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.954748.9%23 W · 24 L+6.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+74.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No48c367.72$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.863759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1574…ad8fbacked Yes68c350$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.