World Politics · resolved market
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ac9c130c349a8a3675cb3cac1e22af7ab55376e27881957a30455299adba526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $659,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $611,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 266 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 8c | 79,398$6,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,084.73 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 35c | 31,491$11,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,347.06 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 70c | 23,279$16,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,363.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 69c | 18,069$12,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,545.12 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 46c | 16,987$7,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,187.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 14,107$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.85 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 13,043$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.45 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…356ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,835$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…3f65backed No | 24c | 12,436$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,435.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…a17ebacked No | 35c | 11,548$4,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,480.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 79c | 10,874$8,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,583.38 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 54c | 10,474$5,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,660.35 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4976…d25cbacked Yes | 47c | 9,875$4,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,655.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,161$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 2c | 8,297$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 45c | 7,981$3,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,586.17 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 48c | 7,719$3,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,706.52 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 56c | 6,487$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660.39 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 62c | 6,391$3,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,942.06 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 46c | 5,932$2,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.08 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 73c | 5,797$4,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,214.54 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 5,523$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,970.39 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 5,427$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,326.7 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 61c | 5,269$3,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,189.17 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 19c | 5,239$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,223.66 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 0c | 5,080$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 34c | 3,246$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.34 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 15c | 2,990$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550.38 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…03a1backed No | 19c | 2,597$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +419.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 47c | 2,587$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.27 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 38c | 2,484$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.03 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 39c | 2,432$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.51 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…bf9dbacked Yes | 49c | 2,342$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 43c | 2,251$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.35 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 33c | 2,071$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.33 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 5c | 2,036$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 8cpaid | +854.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 51c | 1,994$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.95 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,973$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.02 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 3c | 1,889$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,820$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.31per pick | 15cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 25c | 1,748$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.84 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…fb70backed No | 67c | 1,653$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 69c | 1,643$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.62 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…97afbacked Yes | 63c | 1,586$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 54c | 1,514$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.87 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cf…d6e0backed Yes | 64c | 1,512$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…d290backed Yes | 33c | 1,508$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 39c | 1,500$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 45c | 1,311$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.45 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 1,302$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.45 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 21c | 1,280$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.2 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,252$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.32 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed No | 68c | 1,162$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 1,100$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.5 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 52c | 1,053$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…1820backed Yes | 73c | 1,030$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 40c | 979$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.75 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8405backed Yes | 69c | 951.67$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 80c | 939.52$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.36 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed Yes | 75c | 871.71$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 17c | 822$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 17c | 822$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 48c | 809.98$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…1015backed Yes | 46c | 800$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2a…43d5backed Yes | 73c | 797.47$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 30c | 716.08$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.58 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed Yes | 62c | 700.46$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes | 74c | 673$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed No | 36c | 650.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 55c | 641.9$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.87 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 40c | 640$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.4 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 63c | 625.64$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.15 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 76c | 600$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 44c | 568.16$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 566.68$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.18 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…33d6backed Yes | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…a38ebacked Yes | 66c | 513.47$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 62c | 511.59$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.96 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed No | 27c | 500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb6…93f6backed Yes | 56c | 489.03$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1721…51f3backed Yes | 63c | 477.68$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 45c | 467.55$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 19c | 461.3$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.7 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked Yes | 54c | 457$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 67c | 448.5$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 61c | 442$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 36c | 431.62$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 14c | 400$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 77c | 400$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 30c | 389.24$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 65c | 377$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 48c | 367.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…ad8fbacked Yes | 68c | 350$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?this page
- Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?No won
- Will Eduardo del Castillo win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?No won
- Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?No won
- Will Rodrigo Paz win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Yes won
- Will Samuel Doria Medina win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.