TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Samuel Doria Medina win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$376,171
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$321,578

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $376,171 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8795…7544backed No55c31,145$17,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,027.779334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b6…3f65backed Yes22c25,725$5,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5421118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked Yes49c20,972$10,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,329.62050%10 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked Yes29c20,817$5,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,972.462045%9 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+2,378.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes5c14,111$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.425420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes41c13,071$5,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,374.6713918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes48c12,592$5,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,982.1416535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes45c9,838$4,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,410.6957636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Yes7c8,774$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.912231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Yes9c8,010$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.882634.6%9 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.27per pick8cpaid+854.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes25c7,688$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.648932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No77c6,225$4,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.266439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes45c5,707$2,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,562.784540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No45c5,577$2,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,067.313228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x457a…44debacked Yes29c4,873$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.642334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes49c4,436$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.2631534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes26c4,131$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.3210533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No59c4,130$2,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.9818036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c3,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes26c3,423$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.1312332.5%40 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d29…19aebacked Yes34c3,061$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No62c3,052$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.788440.5%34 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes15c3,006$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.38248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+1,305.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes29c2,505$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.665437%20 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes46c2,422$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.127932.9%26 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes50c2,251$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.422913.8%4 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-8.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes50c2,104$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.182927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66019957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed No66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6805230.8%16 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes12c1,955$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.2815026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes34c1,841$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.911738.5%45 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes51c1,717$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.3814632.2%47 W · 99 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5674…15c2backed Yes46c1,671$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.08933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc891…1917backed Yes50c1,624$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.151428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes27c1,498$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes25c1,314$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.6412040%48 W · 72 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4976…d25cbacked Yes21c1,254$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed Yes49c1,252$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.072236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes52c1,153$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.963423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No64c1,112$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.0912345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcfd…9835backed Yes27c1,093$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes51c1,085$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.693534.3%12 W · 23 L-8.2wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-46.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xc358…1015backed Yes37c1,064$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.563732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8318…e497backed Yes49c1,041$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-47.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c1…dab9backed Yes34c1,034$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.511030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4907828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8718…db3abacked Yes52c958.46$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes47c863.2$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.8848224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x470d…90fabacked Yes51c853.59$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No74c811.88$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.682766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes16c792.48$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3840%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa59…2fe4backed Yes49c716.1$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f3…4c06backed Yes42c676.18$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.42825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes28c622.67$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.483925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e3e…692abacked Yes39c613$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.581936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c600$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19454934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0e9…c21ebacked Yes2c600$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.09333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes14c600$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878630.2%26 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed Yes6c600$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.752839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Yes36c600$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.23046.7%14 W · 16 L-5.4wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No50c599.99$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29811454.4%62 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes41c562.49$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.28757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes9c560$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.544221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc3…4370backed Yes17c537.2$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No74c536.29$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.6218530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes49c523$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.183432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2456536.9%24 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes9c495.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7937117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes44c486$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8415230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes44c467.55$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.726735.8%24 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes8c456$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.486633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked No51c428.61$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.025935.6%21 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes44c427$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.562218.2%4 W · 18 L-5.6wins-0.25per pick44cpaid-68.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xca89…1567backed Yes4c420.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No72c416.53$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.781,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e54…5f61backed Yes43c408$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes34c405.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1623921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes27c401$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.333935.9%14 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf23a…df6fbacked No65c400$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed Yes47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1882227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-39%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked No80c400$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes21c400$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822536%9 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked No53c388.19$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.451050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf839…bbf0backed Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c376.12$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No51c352$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.22142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed Yes40c333$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.533135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No52c321.48$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.314143.9%18 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x782d…df02backed Yes50c316.96$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f9…2573backed Yes19c305.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1085728.1%16 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…5f15backed Yes48c289.99$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.191323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-52.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No55c288.1$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5527828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes51c280$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14211039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes7c274$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3610331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No77c256.63$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7719043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes25c240$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603010%3 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5deb…0bd8backed Yes43c230.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes49c229$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.215628.6%16 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa95f…2bdbbacked No80c218.53$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.631631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.