World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb63659a05751609ed19b99cfc06ebd8aafd09e0aaf68a40c7f8c941d25c44a5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked No | 29c | 785$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed Yes | 71c | 785$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 31c | 637$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 69c | 608$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 28c | 554.27$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.27 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 63c | 548.03$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.11 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 7c | 428.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19fa…de0fbacked Yes | 70c | 390.27$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb6…93f6backed Yes | 78c | 294.83$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 22c | 198.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.59 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 76c | 182.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 139.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.58 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…78a6backed No | 26c | 139.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +278.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…22ebbacked No | 29c | 87.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 41c | 81.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed No | 22c | 76.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.57per pick | 23cpaid | +242.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 80c | 64.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…57e5backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0680…0141backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…83e9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.