World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e9d3ad836bdc141d027144e5bbc16965455de4f63723c5f44df77186e01ddab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80b3…565bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 21c | 1,257$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 79c | 666$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 79c | 486$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 21c | 355$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 79c | 355$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 69c | 248.78$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…85c3backed Yes | 35c | 170.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 79c | 168$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 130.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 76c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.