TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,387 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd14…3bb2backed Yes7c258.09$18 inLost-$17.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4035…5e54backed Yes11c249.42$28 inLost-$27.840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0b…7c10backed Yes14c193.17$27 inLost-$27.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x548b…b212backed Yes23c86.9$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0d…d3a5backed No77c71$55 inWon+$163287.5%28 W · 4 L+5.9wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+30.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa391…8a54backed Yes25c60.76$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No78c41.44$33 inWon+$8.933672.2%26 W · 10 L+6.8wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+37%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed No75c30$23 inWon+$7.53871.1%27 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fa9…22ebbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.52556%14 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+47%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.