World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1c0e5b13ec288d179d6ce9083012fc61af8654e4c9a7782cf4f6034c9352af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x381c…dae1backed No | 78c | 816$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 22c | 607$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 79c | 572$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 21c | 395$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 75c | 265.52$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 22c | 219$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa3…2c1fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed Yes | 21c | 177$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 71c | 128.58$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…d28bbacked Yes | 29c | 102.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Yes | 28c | 90.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 75c | 82.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 72c | 77.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…13cdbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…4488backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 36c | 68.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…22ebbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…5e03backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 67c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.