TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,612,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,165,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,612,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes52c215,563$111,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,993.6137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed No5c183,507$8,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,497.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbeb…e6e0backed No65c97,615$63,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,766.19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d2…1472backed No1c87,643$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0333…3b1dbacked No1c46,109$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked No30c43,241$12,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,934.312045%9 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3714…9ce3backed No1c40,358$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes6c39,537$2,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,117.381450%7 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd037…f5f8backed No2c33,723$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes62c32,542$20,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,370.8413850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf2…0300backed No25c32,360$8,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,091.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f8…0e46backed No1c32,333$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbabe…ee53backed No15c32,040$4,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,901.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes73c30,630$22,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,199.235143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c0…564cbacked No3c28,322$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed No1c27,212$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.55475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+58.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3acc…06a3backed No1c27,000$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5a…1d35backed No13c26,647$3,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5606450%32 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47ea…68f8backed No1c26,296$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4db…966ebacked No1c25,527$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x761a…0e8ebacked No30c23,950$7,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,255.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa0…488bbacked No5c20,935$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.891250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes79c20,931$16,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,422.011346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked Yes80c20,735$16,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,157.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No10c18,430$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.855141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a1…8ccdbacked No6c17,873$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed No26c17,752$4,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,658.185032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x772a…c9f3backed No22c16,215$3,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,554.830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3140…fbbebacked No1c16,056$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f42…2af2backed No1c15,461$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No0c14,338$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.01616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43e9…05a6backed No0c14,061$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf195…a7c1backed No2c13,943$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes77c13,936$10,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,144.98137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x098e…f289backed No1c13,725$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes25c13,353$3,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,966.135836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa726…4646backed No32c13,039$4,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,157.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb33…c3d6backed No1c12,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…71d9backed No1c12,203$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41d…9ba4backed No7c12,069$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No6c11,489$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.948630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00ea…f801backed No0c10,933$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes72c10,707$7,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,008.56742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x552e…86c6backed No5c10,409$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4902437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8ac…091ebacked No2c10,398$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No31c10,255$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,220.022025%5 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf8…3632backed No14c10,178$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0e…32dbbacked No1c10,087$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc911…0b42backed No1c10,027$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa285…c85fbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ae…9c6ebacked No1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed91…58ddbacked No2c9,683$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.78425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-45.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7253…38a5backed No6c9,625$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8659…9178backed No1c9,498$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes44c9,207$4,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,124.493644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No37c9,083$3,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3631526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes15c8,727$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,388.1335819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5502…207ebacked No11c8,611$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db2…048abacked No2c8,565$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c1…9019backed No2c8,101$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.09825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fa4…8e0bbacked No1c8,083$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No45c7,980$3,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,585.114742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea6…a363backed No29c7,951$2,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,313.974422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a3…7c05backed No14c7,902$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0872060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes51c7,824$3,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,831.995354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e49…cc2abacked No14c7,771$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed Yes9c7,541$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,871.74450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+259.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes79c7,045$5,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.751353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes48c6,976$3,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,600.1912245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2083…962ebacked Yes37c6,690$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,214.941947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf92…55cbbacked No35c6,676$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No31c6,590$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.2321259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked No76c6,357$4,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,850.771833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes74c6,295$4,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.5510327.2%28 W · 75 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bd…a4f1backed No43c6,198$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa8…fc2dbacked No4c6,099$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe62e…b7f5backed No51c6,011$3,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5955…932fbacked No1c6,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed No13c5,968$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a74…413ebacked No1c5,874$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No47c5,855$2,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,780.5336750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No80c5,626$4,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,490.1270%0 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes77c5,543$4,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x70bc…a453backed No1c5,437$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed No15c5,412$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.67387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4835…f597backed No1c5,300$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8e…cdccbacked No74c5,280$3,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,905.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes51c5,245$2,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,589.0177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7472…4febbacked Yes6c5,059$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,740.69728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+160.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No38c5,054$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.357247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb54a…cf5abacked No2c5,006$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0690%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed No38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No66c4,971$3,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,258.937254.2%39 W · 33 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes73c4,809$3,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.6935347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79f1…a885backed No22c4,679$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x909e…cecfbacked No1c4,537$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8584…5761backed No10c4,499$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0508…028cbacked No1c4,465$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.44450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1bf…1800backed No71c4,333$3,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,078.78837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e5…2a64backed No2c4,232$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.