Us Politics · resolved market
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x278862397e5f271a7b2f0d8c3625993e3c4590a008f0a62e0fdf22b2a94dc612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $492,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $513,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $492,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8261…06a3backed No | 48c | 120,687$57,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,929.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ed…a702backed Yes | 52c | 120,687$62,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,929.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 34c | 25,335$8,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,575.16 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 76c | 24,165$18,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,876.92 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 45c | 23,484$10,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,928.04 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 52c | 17,438$9,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,122.65 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 61c | 14,467$8,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,697.25 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 68c | 14,321$9,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,551.54 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 42c | 11,229$4,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,676.99 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 46c | 11,226$5,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,195.06 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 47c | 10,562$4,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,622.01 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 27c | 9,832$2,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,680.46 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 48c | 7,932$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,102.13 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 26c | 6,607$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.75 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 36c | 6,112$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 78c | 5,199$4,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.83 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 51c | 4,925$2,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,410.02 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 55c | 2,757$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.93 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 32c | 2,044$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.99 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 5c | 1,800$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,575$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.61 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…4973backed No | 57c | 1,550$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 80c | 1,254$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 71c | 1,193$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 13c | 1,021$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.32 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 74c | 989$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe8…d32dbacked No | 26c | 900$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 59c | 853.62$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 789.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 51c | 778$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.63 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…6dafbacked Yes | 74c | 705$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 32c | 650$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaaa…fd78backed Yes | 75c | 637.47$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 8c | 606.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb9…1e9abacked Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…8bb9backed No | 31c | 455$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 28c | 430$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.2 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e0…922ebacked No | 26c | 420$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 28c | 400$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…bd38backed No | 66c | 335$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e9…94e7backed No | 31c | 315$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…1f21backed No | 31c | 310$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…d3c4backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…da0ebacked No | 26c | 295$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c10bbacked Yes | 74c | 290$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cd…fe26backed Yes | 34c | 285$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…c16dbacked No | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c0…5783backed Yes | 69c | 240$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5765…7a40backed Yes | 74c | 235$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…1191backed Yes | 69c | 235$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…fe4bbacked Yes | 34c | 215$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…3124backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked No | 36c | 199.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 36c | 191.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…90a1backed No | 31c | 190$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8c…a4ecbacked No | 26c | 175$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…86d8backed No | 31c | 165$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…82f3backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 50c | 149.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 32c | 147$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…28cebacked No | 66c | 145$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…4495backed Yes | 69c | 140$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…403cbacked Yes | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…fce4backed No | 38c | 139.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41e…d491backed Yes | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed No | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 121.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 54c | 97.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 95.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…5e3cbacked Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…1f27backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…76e5backed Yes | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bde…a062backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…00f0backed No | 31c | 72.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 48c | 65.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…a2b0backed No | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3226…321cbacked Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e2…5532backed Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…859bbacked Yes | 66c | 52.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f6…c209backed Yes | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 28c | 42.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3547…7064backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…5b56backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…f625backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf9…5605backed No | 47c | 36.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a10…be21backed Yes | 71c | 36.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…df24backed Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 62c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 31.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccee…5724backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…926abacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%?this page
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by 20-25%?No won
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by 25-30%?No won
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by 30-35%?No won
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by more than 35%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.