Us Politics · resolved market
Will Jimmy Patronis win by 20-25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dc2274f03811f5361adfdd2e81afd85bc1bedfcfed5b9dbdf810bc7846a6ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f07…9d45backed Yes | 17c | 52,578$8,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,938.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 23c | 4,607$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.99 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 18c | 2,500$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 6c | 2,396$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 8c | 2,220$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.56 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…d61abacked Yes | 19c | 1,100$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 21c | 573.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1a…2dc9backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 14c | 495.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd261…5c41backed Yes | 17c | 470$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…8189backed Yes | 7c | 445$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c2…2c99backed Yes | 17c | 430$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…8c10backed Yes | 20c | 395$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 68c | 333.13$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…52ddbacked Yes | 20c | 310$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 71c | 300$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 271.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…316abacked Yes | 17c | 240$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…4490backed Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…f6d4backed Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 16c | 152$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 135.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…f8a3backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 78c | 115.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…e6ccbacked No | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…c074backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 30c | 98.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaa…62dbbacked No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…e8c0backed No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…a5b0backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 70c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2e50backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…e912backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f4…90f7backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e2…4e21backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…4f2bbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by 20-25%?this page
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by 25-30%?No won
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by 30-35%?No won
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%?Yes won
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by more than 35%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.