Us Politics · resolved market
Will Jimmy Patronis win by 25-30%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c03d3ecb12ec08c0f9384aa1182b6fec88231e07eb0e9fbbef7d9f218bba5c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 7c | 15,291$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.39 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 16c | 6,451$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.51 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 2,998$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.02 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 22c | 2,797$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.54 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 8c | 1,065$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed Yes | 15c | 900$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 23c | 870$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.8 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc522…fbc3backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 68c | 560$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…9ab0backed Yes | 5c | 505$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 15c | 469.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 8c | 310.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 303.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0a…3645backed Yes | 5c | 265$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 70c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 87.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by 25-30%?this page
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by 20-25%?No won
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by 30-35%?No won
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%?Yes won
- Will Jimmy Patronis win by more than 35%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.