TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,978,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,290,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,978,401 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 975 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a34…c226backed Yes2c201,693$4,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,529.333315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecce…fdb4backed Yes8c131,180$10,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,900.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…e722backed Yes5c100,072$4,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,715.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aae…a2adbacked Yes6c90,263$5,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,235.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae8…b90abacked Yes9c73,942$6,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,47310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b5…d709backed Yes1c66,720$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.44140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes13c66,636$8,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,569.734555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes10c65,200$6,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,809.92319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No61c64,016$39,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,702.965869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb477…063bbacked Yes8c59,507$4,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,967.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde05…1ababacked Yes51c57,545$29,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,593.6120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes3c56,446$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.741024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c53,974$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.478010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd18e…3535backed Yes2c50,837$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.3620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes16c41,724$6,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,740.041333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes12c40,554$4,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,831.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes3c39,922$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.391931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick22cpaid-24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes4c38,305$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.66100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No50c37,121$18,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,386.2310545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3301…5517backed Yes4c33,194$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ae…b624backed Yes7c33,000$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f4…58e7backed Yes3c32,159$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes23c30,661$7,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,094.694736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5117…d36fbacked Yes53c28,204$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00080%0 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes10c22,380$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.3918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2961…bac2backed Yes4c22,281$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.1580%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dcb…bf17backed Yes0c21,768$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950e…76d9backed Yes1c21,429$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No78c20,666$16,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,639.315662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e81…8406backed Yes15c20,534$3,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.672213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc212…f53ebacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes21c19,021$3,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,978.045034%17 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50df…1f07backed Yes3c18,836$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe5…d4b3backed Yes36c18,340$6,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,588.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe385…2e82backed Yes8c16,382$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5b…cb7ebacked Yes10c16,382$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…942cbacked No73c16,361$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,360.851338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c16,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa94e…24e0backed Yes8c15,973$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes4c15,703$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd561…9b7bbacked No47c15,690$7,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,262.293452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes58c15,269$8,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,887.950%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed No67c15,218$10,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,089.215444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked Yes11c15,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.992437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd33f…33e1backed Yes1c14,984$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.54140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x022a…a057backed Yes2c14,729$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes1c14,544$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.711554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb07a…98f7backed Yes7c14,450$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.981816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes28c14,294$3,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,941.85034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Yes7c14,102$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.5760%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes4c13,696$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.35320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c13,422$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.241,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf57e…5a1bbacked Yes8c13,247$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8474…2511backed Yes41c13,165$5,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,450.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc037…7240backed No47c12,792$5,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,800.711457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd31f…a7f1backed Yes11c12,536$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes16c12,327$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0172250%11 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x333d…0fbfbacked Yes5c12,045$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd82f…1d21backed Yes7c12,025$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.770%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Yes18c12,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes20c12,000$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.84432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Yes24c11,970$2,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,813.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes1c11,548$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.95520%0 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ae…15e0backed Yes20c11,260$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,249.31822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes15c11,163$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2398…3e12backed Yes4c11,039$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53f…f455backed Yes57c10,613$6,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,010250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1db…e1bcbacked Yes0c10,543$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f56…f1bbbacked Yes17c10,450$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa56c…a440backed Yes4c10,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-50.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes17c10,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc75a…8a88backed Yes3c10,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a7d…1f87backed No56c9,650$5,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,222.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes8c9,504$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800250%0 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdebd…4671backed Yes20c9,434$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.221020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes12c9,337$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.078920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4093…823cbacked Yes54c9,035$4,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,843.21926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c9,015$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e63…c9ebbacked Yes43c8,791$3,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,743.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93cb…5288backed Yes5c8,657$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes12c8,551$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.0819439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed No56c8,421$4,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,701.466053.3%32 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x63ae…8eabbacked Yes0c8,307$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfcb…6196backed Yes3c8,288$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No56c8,272$4,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,609.9155032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No51c8,235$4,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,014.677652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x32c6…0bafbacked Yes61c8,017$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,92010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked No75c8,009$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.255747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ec…a6d9backed Yes8c8,000$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.290%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9220…8585backed Yes1c7,966$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Yes10c7,675$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.99190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed Yes1c7,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes0c7,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed No75c7,446$5,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.9925824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5c…b34abacked Yes64c7,326$4,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,687.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed No52c7,300$3,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,535.344845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d8…65adbacked Yes2c7,106$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed No50c7,040$3,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,511.55156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc18…ec17backed Yes27c7,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9202832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.