Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1534ab8323c7aa610e5d6248ff0250ce39649187a09e0e582b92a4930f91d17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $872,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $927,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $872,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed No | 43c | 87,522$37,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,385.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 39cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…e85cbacked Yes | 75c | 67,808$50,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,952.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed No | 56c | 59,281$33,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,321.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa584…28e5backed Yes | 75c | 51,404$38,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,907.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…09dabacked No | 10c | 37,735$3,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,738.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 63c | 33,218$20,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,418.59 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 22c | 30,000$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 78c | 19,409$15,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,203.41 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 20c | 16,000$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,219.99 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 45c | 15,477$6,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,939.98 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 71c | 15,219$10,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,386.8 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed Yes | 77c | 15,000$11,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,495.65 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 30c | 12,771$3,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,776.94 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 9c | 11,276$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 12c | 10,861$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.66 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 77c | 10,600$8,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,484.95 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 66c | 10,306$6,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,504.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…9f03backed No | 50c | 10,012$4,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,967.94 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 65c | 10,005$6,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,479.78 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 58c | 7,484$4,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,118.07 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed No | 5c | 7,000$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 14c | 6,820$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed No | 19c | 6,729$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.45 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes | 60c | 6,255$3,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.16 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…823cbacked No | 28c | 6,020$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.54 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 27c | 5,600$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.24 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 78c | 5,500$4,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.3 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 48c | 5,454$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,839.36 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked No | 32c | 5,158$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.35 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 57c | 5,082$2,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,897 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…2dffbacked Yes | 66c | 4,789$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…4f07backed Yes | 79c | 4,775$3,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…b2d3backed No | 15c | 4,728$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.56 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x653a…ce1ebacked Yes | 48c | 4,195$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 18c | 3,940$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…d7d4backed No | 52c | 3,849$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…b913backed Yes | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aad…4e00backed Yes | 72c | 3,606$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed No | 15c | 3,553$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.45 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed No | 9c | 3,409$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.01 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 51c | 3,267$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.67 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 6c | 3,140$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.65 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…fce2backed Yes | 76c | 2,632$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…39e9backed Yes | 79c | 2,500$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 9c | 2,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…2e0bbacked Yes | 73c | 2,232$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…942cbacked No | 12c | 2,085$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 71c | 2,083$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.4 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 12c | 2,025$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.89 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…a3d9backed No | 30c | 2,025$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdc…49ffbacked No | 50c | 1,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.54 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9b7bbacked No | 35c | 1,981$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e9…dde2backed No | 4c | 1,800$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 11c | 1,736$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed No | 20c | 1,653$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 2c | 1,540$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa740…ee18backed Yes | 50c | 1,511$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.9 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…faafbacked No | 8c | 1,487$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…7bf0backed No | 25c | 1,400$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 55c | 1,281$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.61 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 6c | 1,256$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +169.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb24b…f263backed No | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.03 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,050$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…6ffbbacked No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f4…077dbacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…b7a5backed Yes | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…1788backed No | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…cfc4backed No | 42c | 900$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.59 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 890.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…3733backed Yes | 60c | 832.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x680c…e11dbacked Yes | 70c | 813.2$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…a376backed No | 42c | 813.16$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.16 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c5…a686backed Yes | 73c | 680$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…cd1dbacked Yes | 55c | 620.36$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…e0a6backed Yes | 73c | 616.33$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 26c | 600$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf7…8cf3backed No | 11c | 561.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked No | 11c | 549.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 52c | 531.83$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.04 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f7…e1d8backed No | 22c | 523.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +71%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 65c | 510.74$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.77 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cd…10f4backed Yes | 75c | 506.67$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 5c | 500.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked No | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.48 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 6c | 453.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x821c…ffc7backed Yes | 45c | 440.72$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.36 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed Yes | 73c | 416.58$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c00…f516backed No | 29c | 368.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…8f50backed No | 26c | 360$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…2b2abacked No | 20c | 357$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 52c | 355.71$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.97 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc453…2bcdbacked No | 43c | 337.49$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.43 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…1df1backed No | 49c | 324.92$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.