Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dfa5362fd917d9fe5ed7d3103ab847172f9e1ce0d67453eb1ea6f829292eb94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $437,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $431,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7bd…2d46backed No | 0c | 112,562$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 11c | 49,300$5,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,815.3 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ae…15e0backed Yes | 13c | 19,848$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,348.08 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 14c | 16,113$2,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,786.83 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes | 13c | 15,239$1,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,320.87 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 13c | 13,469$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,690.91 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x940a…840fbacked No | 1c | 12,761$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 0c | 11,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 0c | 10,170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 18c | 9,999$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,182.83 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 34c | 9,720$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,388.45 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 9c | 7,100$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,460 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed No | 28c | 6,500$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 11c | 6,150$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,479.93 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 13c | 6,077$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,317.24 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,564$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,127.35 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf8…a081backed No | 0c | 4,336$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 15c | 3,191$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,712.5 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…254bbacked Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…8e34backed Yes | 10c | 2,863$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 9c | 2,373$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.15 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…6ffbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,832$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,078$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.79 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…438dbacked Yes | 14c | 999$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.14 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…c59fbacked No | 28c | 840$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Yes | 5c | 640$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed Yes | 6c | 425$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 14cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.33per pick | 14cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.5 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 32c | 321.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.98 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…a376backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…4e09backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 13c | 179.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.18 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 14c | 144.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.83 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…70d3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +4.4wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +341.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 21c | 73.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.