Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55bfef658fffd3c96da9f5bc3c37139770a293da13536adb91558fab1dc03693
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $247,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 19c | 22,770$4,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,371.68 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 18c | 18,618$3,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,424.18 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5c…b34abacked Yes | 70c | 13,450$9,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,054.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 9c | 7,939$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.42 | 133 | 3.8%5 W · 128 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed No | 32c | 6,618$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.71 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e9…dde2backed No | 1c | 6,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 11c | 6,455$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 21c | 5,105$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.58 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…9f03backed No | 46c | 4,410$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 75c | 4,058$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.21 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 21c | 3,630$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…6ffbbacked No | 6c | 3,400$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf5…84d9backed Yes | 76c | 3,290$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 11c | 3,276$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.73 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 7c | 3,042$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.03 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked No | 5c | 2,018$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…124ebacked No | 16c | 1,549$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes | 69c | 1,491$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.08 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 21c | 1,217$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.82 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,012$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.4 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdc…49ffbacked No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed No | 6c | 1,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 73c | 999.99$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 23c | 998.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.77 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…b2d3backed No | 15c | 900$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 843.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24b…f263backed No | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc453…2bcdbacked Yes | 72c | 793.1$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.31 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…414dbacked No | 33c | 599.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedfc…1df1backed No | 20c | 594.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x693e…623abacked No | 14c | 540$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cd…10f4backed No | 15c | 533.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…6dd4backed Yes | 75c | 516.44$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa740…ee18backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed Yes | 54c | 437.85$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.41 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…25f8backed Yes | 57c | 353$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked Yes | 54c | 350$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 13c | 349.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…e72fbacked Yes | 57c | 320$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821c…ffc7backed Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…0a6ebacked Yes | 69c | 289$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed Yes | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa728…6923backed Yes | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00a…c58cbacked Yes | 77c | 205$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 36c | 177.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659a…60ebbacked No | 23c | 177.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…10dabacked No | 15c | 159.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb644…d6e1backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…a296backed No | 26c | 139.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…8f50backed Yes | 63c | 125.23$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…c48dbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e14…5adabacked No | 11c | 104.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…e0aabacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x881c…0d72backed No | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…cb9abacked No | 26c | 55.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…28e9backed No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…bdb9backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…7ff7backed No | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 45c | 44.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…d0b7backed Yes | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…0e34backed Yes | 76c | 36.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…18eabacked No | 29c | 35.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 67c | 32.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…7e74backed Yes | 70c | 27.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d8…7acebacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf11…f761backed Yes | 69c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…33d5backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.