Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76d4e6e7dec287042739c3e757dd5c506887f88bc296143114f8bdea27bc8714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $409,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $390,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7bd…2d46backed No | 0c | 71,103$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 18c | 31,453$5,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,657.35 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f1…2417backed Yes | 16c | 29,124$4,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,539.03 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 0c | 26,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 79c | 15,720$12,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,350.37 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 18c | 15,658$2,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,770.01 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ae…15e0backed Yes | 17c | 14,549$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,048.61 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 17c | 13,915$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,550.81 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 13,900$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 9c | 9,353$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,465.01 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 17c | 7,000$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,820.89 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 26cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 16c | 6,746$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,657.01 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf8…a081backed No | 0c | 6,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,520 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes | 14c | 3,868$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,312.05 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 69c | 3,765$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 25c | 3,444$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,576.98 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 53c | 3,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,384$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,075.37 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 57c | 2,280$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.86 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 13c | 2,180$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.6 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdc…49ffbacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…c59fbacked No | 21c | 1,920$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 27c | 1,300$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 13c | 947.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.33per pick | 14cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 25c | 779.99$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 13c | 650$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.5 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed Yes | 9c | 584.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 14cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked No | 74c | 478.85$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 60c | 433$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.8 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…cfc4backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…7e06backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x220a…1795backed No | 73c | 300.13$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.23 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x63d7…4422backed Yes | 11c | 282.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b98…df12backed No | 80c | 266.2$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked Yes | 73c | 246$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4640…7137backed Yes | 18c | 232.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.49 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +108%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 20c | 199.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.73 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…2d50backed No | 76c | 170.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.82 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 17c | 156.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 72c | 115.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb37…fbacbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…438dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…4e09backed Yes | 11c | 99.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec33…ec91backed No | 73c | 85.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…a3e6backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…776bbacked No | 80c | 42.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…3b4cbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81cd…446fbacked No | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…33d5backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.