TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$987,191
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$908,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $987,191 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd02…aba7backed Yes4c112,053$4,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,945.776124.6%15 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes29c105,385$30,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,392.26283.6%1 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick16cpaid-93.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed Yes1c95,344$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.3870%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd69b…1ed8backed No59c40,487$24,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,398.744240.5%17 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes71c22,179$15,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,753.21662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed No62c20,925$12,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,930.0463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb068…80a2backed Yes5c14,803$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.631338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick24cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c13,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc28…3ed4backed No53c11,223$5,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,313.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked No79c11,095$8,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,304.7487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes7c11,000$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7873647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9af…05adbacked Yes13c10,488$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.386018.3%11 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c10,005$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed No79c8,409$6,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.9525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes15c8,033$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.0515023.3%35 W · 115 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3da…a0f9backed No30c6,959$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,859.112824.2%31 W · 97 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1032…8f91backed Yes24c6,827$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.913847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf23…b0f1backed Yes14c6,000$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc394…fb0abacked No45c5,536$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,052.381361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes3c5,345$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.66180%0 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes57c4,959$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,828.52650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes23c4,684$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.8112431.5%39 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc165…8e10backed Yes67c4,583$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,067.720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe362…7430backed Yes12c4,547$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.531225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd0…a0a1backed No31c4,416$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,045.424763.8%30 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c0a…643abacked Yes3c4,278$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46d1…2005backed Yes67c4,096$2,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,743.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc87e…c016backed Yes1c4,093$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ac…90debacked No34c3,937$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,590.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-51.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf323…c700backed No51c3,595$1,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.662846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed No69c3,057$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.567619.7%15 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc73…2e18backed Yes65c2,965$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52ad…c636backed Yes78c2,857$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick70cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes16c2,847$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.357229.2%21 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-38.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ec5…6bcfbacked Yes2c2,381$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-90%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked Yes15c2,149$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.322040%8 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-18.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5177…93c9backed Yes13c2,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick16cpaid+226.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c32…e662backed Yes29c1,959$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes14c1,784$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.972213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc302…f388backed Yes6c1,772$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.322326.1%6 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+221.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f3c…5613backed No60c1,737$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae4…dce7backed Yes68c1,639$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…11fdbacked Yes1c1,634$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b01…389dbacked Yes71c1,500$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e9…fc9fbacked No65c1,412$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.047423%17 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed No29c1,379$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.311353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes22c1,232$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.28327.7%23 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa526…8a33backed Yes28c1,078$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ddb…ca89backed Yes2c1,071$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.073452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c1,061$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3964812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes2c1,029$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.612416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No22c1,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78016761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes76c1,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76014075.7%106 W · 34 L+17.6wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+22.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked No26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74013038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…2556backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402313%3 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…6e41backed Yes9c999.98$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+316.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c991$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c967.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.213013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8252…e65cbacked Yes3c900$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes37c837.19$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.677540%30 W · 45 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8f…a613backed Yes65c782$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6924…1a66backed Yes4c769$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952a…5c79backed Yes9c680.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes3c650$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.211250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56d9…ecaabacked Yes6c650$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Yes23c609.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.2617953.6%96 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No63c535.15$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.789546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x058f…5da4backed Yes5c521.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb130…6ee2backed Yes5c518.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes5c502.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.142119%4 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a90…93bfbacked No36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f69…23cbbacked Yes4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69eb…46e5backed Yes22c489.66$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.974231%13 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No29c487.51$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.136543.1%28 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No74c472.64$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.157357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes4c429.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bbd…cfbbbacked Yes6c354.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7479…fbecbacked No21c350$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.55747.4%27 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No34c320$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.212020%24 W · 96 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7689…2fa9backed No26c310$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.833452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cdd…2916backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…e6bfbacked Yes4c285$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4418…cb83backed Yes7c265$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x583b…2ef1backed Yes67c216.73$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010545.7%48 W · 57 L+22.9wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+94.2%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed No69c199.82$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.63053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9944…b035backed Yes47c190.98$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47b7…c5babacked Yes10c163.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5508…4380backed Yes10c155.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddcf…d49ebacked No33c150$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes33c133.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1911533%38 W · 77 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed No26c120$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.87949.4%39 W · 40 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb022…a3cabacked Yes42c104$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccee…5724backed No18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3147…8186backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-57.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked No21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.247139.4%28 W · 43 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6672…37abbacked Yes72c87$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc610…ef8ebacked Yes70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08d8…cad6backed No27c67.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1524…dc7abacked No59c57$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.