TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$462,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$405,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $462,229 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb204…1e42backed Yes2c36,042$746 inLost-$745.9240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes1c20,000$280 inLost-$2803813.2%5 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c19,994$40 inLost-$39.99234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-87.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd69b…1ed8backed Yes2c19,224$309 inLost-$309.434240.5%17 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc302…f388backed Yes2c18,696$400 inLost-$4002326.1%6 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+221.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c17,360$27 inLost-$27.022290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c15,296$56 inLost-$56.18270%0 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c10,008$10 inLost-$10.071360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e9…12ebbacked Yes3c9,157$292 inLost-$292.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c5,920$29 inLost-$28.83510%0 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$20140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c1…99fbbacked Yes2c4,920$98 inLost-$98825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+292.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes1c4,393$39 inLost-$39.432416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes2c3,500$57 inLost-$571519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf323…c700backed Yes1c2,599$13 inLost-$13.422846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes1c2,332$12 inLost-$11.881915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdd…f771backed Yes2c2,204$40 inLost-$401612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-82%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1284…32e2backed Yes3c1,973$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ea…800abacked Yes1c1,472$19 inLost-$18.663915.4%6 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b30…08eabacked Yes1c1,106$14 inLost-$13.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes1c1,000$12 inLost-$129427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b01…389dbacked Yes3c971.43$34 inLost-$3440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes1c889.5$13 inLost-$12.588327.7%23 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe87a…7506backed Yes4c569.66$21 inLost-$21.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9099…7fcdbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.