Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef286402598ec347b5b075436d0996d34e1afe4cf661839141c4b8ee47636110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $497,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $697,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $497,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes | 4c | 27,622$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.93 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 1c | 17,770$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.37 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 5c | 16,180$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.19 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 13,496$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…1ed8backed Yes | 6c | 6,820$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.7 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +6.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +110%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 1c | 6,003$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…12ebbacked Yes | 7c | 5,635$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…2d08backed Yes | 0c | 5,479$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 4,732$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,618$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…f388backed Yes | 6c | 3,214$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +221.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf323…c700backed Yes | 1c | 1,911$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,657$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb402…33cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,037$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…8153backed Yes | 2c | 939.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cae…d9a1backed Yes | 5c | 917.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 4c | 599.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 426.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f2…d570backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 6c | 241.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…57e5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1900 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2000 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2200 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2400 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.