Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x889d2a7ceb311b540ceb60232528719120e67458d870fe2046c0eddafdf76d7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $861,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $842,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $861,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e04…c004backed Yes | 3c | 104,924$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,997.61 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Yes | 3c | 53,550$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…836bbacked Yes | 2c | 42,000$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d0…b3d2backed Yes | 3c | 28,660$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…6e41backed Yes | 1c | 23,725$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 2c | 20,400$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.73 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,001$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 68 | 10.3%7 W · 61 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes | 1c | 18,729$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3755…4f02backed Yes | 2c | 16,106$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 15,497$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Yes | 3c | 14,354$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 12,893$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…7d01backed Yes | 2c | 8,570$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,942$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…5a26backed Yes | 0c | 6,687$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 1c | 6,107$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0a…d172backed Yes | 1c | 6,095$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e0…02b0backed Yes | 2c | 5,681$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…06eebacked Yes | 3c | 5,651$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922a…a5aebacked Yes | 0c | 4,688$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaed…f946backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 1c | 3,643$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…4fa9backed Yes | 3c | 3,530$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 3c | 3,262$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…3484backed Yes | 2c | 3,106$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,706$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…8153backed Yes | 1c | 2,127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7c…fc3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,967$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,902$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 3c | 1,901$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f3…6188backed Yes | 1c | 1,892$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…3bdfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,836$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…d6f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,812$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb952…faa7backed Yes | 3c | 1,632$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…0149backed Yes | 3c | 1,613$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,606$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +226.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x209b…1f66backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…3300backed Yes | 2c | 1,493$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0866…77c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 1c | 1,362$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…cee3backed Yes | 2c | 1,192$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…d355backed Yes | 1c | 1,134$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…95bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,071$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc10…74f3backed Yes | 1c | 979.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…16d8backed Yes | 2c | 897.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…f911backed Yes | 2c | 825.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…ef68backed Yes | 2c | 824.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…30e7backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb2…29ddbacked Yes | 2c | 738$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…67a5backed Yes | 2c | 734.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…711cbacked Yes | 3c | 668.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…dcb5backed Yes | 2c | 581.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…6b07backed Yes | 3c | 535.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…e98fbacked Yes | 3c | 482.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4d…7d08backed Yes | 3c | 449.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…0bdbbacked Yes | 3c | 357.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…58ffbacked Yes | 3c | 340.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1900 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2000 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2200 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2400 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.