Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e4749ffe578aeb70f0d0c0649a155b4e06a80d76e4221a220c10d59d77497c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $446,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $433,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 2c | 116,905$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.37 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes | 12c | 44,631$5,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,299.01 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 10,199$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 4c | 7,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.98 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 14c | 4,800$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes | 14c | 4,640$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.55 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 15c | 4,001$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.96 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…06eebacked Yes | 16c | 2,701$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.82 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…f388backed Yes | 16c | 2,450$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +221.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…05adbacked Yes | 14c | 2,300$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 1c | 2,107$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,180$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 9c | 1,115$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes | 16c | 1,031$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb238…e8e9backed Yes | 4c | 1,027$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…3e59backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 954.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 3c | 669.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 2c | 608.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…ae3bbacked Yes | 3c | 578$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…fdc8backed Yes | 2c | 554$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…6008backed Yes | 2c | 413.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320d…8792backed Yes | 4c | 251$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 16c | 112.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e0…02b0backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…99a1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1900 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2000 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2200 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2400 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.