Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1412b71b4627712faff4de56da4233edbf21d688590a4244b6685d1376f0a416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $529,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $527,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $529,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd02…aba7backed Yes | 3c | 99,231$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,602.08 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…bd0abacked Yes | 22c | 55,325$12,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,165.97 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd69b…1ed8backed No | 70c | 23,449$16,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,093.41 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +6.4wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +110%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…9158backed Yes | 17c | 23,068$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,998.72 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 72c | 14,254$10,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,035.55 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…8f91backed Yes | 26c | 9,964$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,571.52 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 8,599$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed No | 60c | 8,048$4,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,220.27 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 57c | 6,930$3,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,984.06 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 10c | 6,576$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.2 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0821…005ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,493$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked Yes | 20c | 6,400$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.99 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed No | 53c | 4,171$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.05 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 2c | 4,114$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf323…c700backed No | 66c | 3,211$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.32 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes | 13c | 3,133$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.35 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…05adbacked Yes | 20c | 2,230$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.8 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,900$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1d63backed Yes | 18c | 1,693$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.54 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56d9…ecaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,485$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 6c | 1,271$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,152$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,028$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…6e41backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…46e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked No | 54c | 999.7$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.86 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…e95fbacked Yes | 41c | 990.85$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 940.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.38 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 26c | 844.93$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.67 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…e3dabacked Yes | 3c | 770.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 760.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a90…93bfbacked No | 59c | 700$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7286…3a33backed Yes | 4c | 577$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 18c | 550$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…06eebacked Yes | 35c | 546.94$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 52c | 544.44$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.44 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42fa…1fc7backed No | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 12c | 517.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…fb0abacked No | 72c | 317.49$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked No | 54c | 185.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 65c | 181.88$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 57c | 170$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +13.6wins | +0.32per pick | 41cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…4380backed Yes | 7c | 153.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…2fa9backed No | 52c | 153$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbce…c541backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…0a70backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…4cf3backed Yes | 45c | 101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…3d66backed Yes | 47c | 90.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…eb66backed Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ef…0d97backed Yes | 47c | 73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x208e…bcb3backed No | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ad…6579backed No | 56c | 59.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…280bbacked No | 55c | 51.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…f6fcbacked Yes | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8c…f98abacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ea…04a9backed No | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…d0dfbacked Yes | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17f…1d57backed No | 57c | 43.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…3616backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…0358backed No | 69c | 36.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 61 | 88.5%54 W · 7 L | +16.9wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c7…ce35backed No | 55c | 35.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4640…7137backed Yes | 42c | 34.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +108%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…4ed1backed No | 55c | 30.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c9…c11bbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1282…519abacked No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0acd…2afebacked No | 55c | 22.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1900 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2000 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2200 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2400 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.