Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe02af4e66367a3cd22ea231f5bdba3548ca1faadc7c7aa63ef7730b5f2d1cb65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked No | 64c | 1,457$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 16c | 1,109$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 28c | 810.88$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe51a…2665backed Yes | 13c | 807.37$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 792.28$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.22 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…8b6cbacked Yes | 14c | 682.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 73c | 665.67$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.45 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 8c | 559$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 20c | 490.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 13c | 476.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 22c | 461$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 310.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed Yes | 11c | 305$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 282.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…096fbacked Yes | 44c | 245.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 78c | 244.97$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…a7a8backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked No | 64c | 195.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…6180backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…e2f1backed Yes | 21c | 163.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8ab2backed Yes | 19c | 161.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…3367backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…1eaabacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…cd8dbacked Yes | 10c | 132.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 17c | 118.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…78f9backed Yes | 13c | 102.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 100.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…f258backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…70d5backed Yes | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 13c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 15c | 85.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…bdafbacked Yes | 12c | 85.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 28c | 72.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 60c | 72.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 35c | 57.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 38c | 30.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…f11dbacked No | 65c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccee…5724backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.