Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23d39d744428faab5f87466cf3f9ec6745deb5614a3ff87e6beff451fffa16e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked No | 44c | 4,491$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes | 48c | 2,047$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.39 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 67c | 2,018$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.89 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 1,810$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.8 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked No | 60c | 1,669$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…9ec9backed No | 33c | 1,660$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +296.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Yes | 70c | 1,519$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 69c | 1,452$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 28c | 1,449$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.65 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 61c | 1,387$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed No | 30c | 1,009$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.69 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa62…dc58backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f67…15c4backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed No | 29c | 963.02$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 29c | 706.22$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.31 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 72c | 700.59$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.27 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 68c | 698.98$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.98 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…35fbbacked No | 31c | 654.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 73c | 473.99$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 398.72$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.71 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 16c | 393.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked No | 30c | 391.88$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 69c | 388.55$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.19 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked Yes | 72c | 314.73$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 34c | 273$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 16c | 268.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked Yes | 73c | 247.07$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 73c | 220$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8ab2backed No | 31c | 217$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 48c | 209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…d6dfbacked No | 31c | 206.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce02…f887backed No | 27c | 198.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…11fbbacked No | 33c | 151.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Yes | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 72c | 139.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 48c | 134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d28…ad63backed Yes | 72c | 127.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 72c | 119.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…3367backed No | 31c | 113.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…9c96backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 29c | 109.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 76c | 104$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…69b7backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…c75bbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 8cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked No | 25c | 78.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb69…4064backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…7f29backed Yes | 71c | 70.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…b21bbacked Yes | 72c | 67.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked No | 47c | 61.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec99…962fbacked No | 34c | 59.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 61c | 51.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…4c14backed Yes | 73c | 42.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…18b5backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…8333backed No | 73c | 32.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 32c | 31.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…7057backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…0394backed Yes | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…f546backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…b02ebacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…e56cbacked Yes | 77c | 24.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 72c | 16.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.