Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27083ad14ccedea2a6a753c3b78f76175dcee4addccfad6cce778fc50ec59f8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked No | 20c | 3,347$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 14c | 1,700$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked No | 23c | 1,307$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed No | 17c | 1,144$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 16c | 1,019$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 17c | 803.53$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.53 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 11c | 629.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 15c | 609.94$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 13c | 512.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 18c | 510.09$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 79c | 445.11$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 26c | 339$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 16c | 311.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 14c | 293.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 287.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 17c | 230$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 12c | 189$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 20c | 168.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 15c | 167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…efc8backed No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 20c | 117$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…8ab2backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 17c | 100.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94cd…0eeebacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b34…5ebdbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked No | 28c | 72.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 77c | 35.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…11fbbacked No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.