Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa11ce4330f9daef63de23d417086d7279a5a2c0d30a8903a169bef0db029ed86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee7…58c3backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…bc95backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…f530backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf02…3638backed No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac18…9154backed No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…9474backed Yes | 34c | 995$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…2a06backed Yes | 34c | 990$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…2e50backed No | 66c | 945$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…8accbacked No | 65c | 810$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…faedbacked Yes | 35c | 700$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…59a9backed Yes | 34c | 660$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…8a10backed Yes | 35c | 565$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6490…2dfebacked Yes | 39c | 565$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…99f5backed No | 66c | 535$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…5cc9backed Yes | 34c | 505$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…1f1bbacked Yes | 34c | 490$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…88afbacked Yes | 39c | 435$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1296…0d1fbacked No | 65c | 435$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…403cbacked Yes | 35c | 435$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…62e9backed No | 61c | 430$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…cb39backed No | 61c | 415$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…cdd9backed No | 66c | 315$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…d203backed No | 65c | 315$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848b…8d58backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 36c | 276.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…a5b0backed Yes | 34c | 270$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 62c | 232.85$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked No | 65c | 208.53$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…2aa7backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…9a9bbacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…eb42backed No | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…212bbacked No | 61c | 155$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…da0ebacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…140bbacked No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…03cebacked No | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…3a3abacked No | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…137cbacked No | 67c | 120.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 57c | 118.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 34c | 117.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 67c | 104.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…7f5dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked No | 67c | 86.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 37c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 81.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 45c | 71.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…ca7ebacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…629cbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…4679backed Yes | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…d007backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 35c | 49.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…1bafbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…e902backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 57c | 31.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…6967backed No | 66c | 30.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.