Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x965799aede8fd4949aec96f408016d3c273f62ed027e288e3ea9ccc8aac03fff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 4c | 2,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f8…f5c3backed No | 6c | 1,696$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed No | 7c | 1,624$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed No | 6c | 1,362$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 1,085$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 3c | 886.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 2c | 750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…3de0backed No | 4c | 668.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed No | 3c | 629.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…96a6backed No | 3c | 606.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 3c | 527$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 4c | 481.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0147…85d4backed No | 3c | 394.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…4910backed No | 3c | 378.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…d823backed No | 6c | 351.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 332.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 5c | 268.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 76c | 231.78$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…d0dcbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed No | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "Balance Sheet" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Ukraine" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.