Middle East · resolved market
Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa402bf0b186fad82fdff3a91bf886e138c9187ecd168b486fa41400f45ce7a94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x388e…0bd7backed Yes | 38c | 31,107$11,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,820.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…03e7backed No | 62c | 31,107$19,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,820.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 23c | 1,262$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.83 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 22c | 1,242$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,218$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,141$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 15c | 1,053$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.53 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +58%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e23…99d7backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 63c | 920.3$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.13 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e92…77d2backed No | 67c | 920$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 15c | 920$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 15c | 751.66$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 43c | 746.37$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.56 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…1046backed Yes | 41c | 722.55$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 17c | 645.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…b2b5backed Yes | 33c | 630$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 13c | 526.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 6c | 510.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…5e5abacked Yes | 51c | 498.66$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 76c | 472.41$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes | 18c | 470$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 11c | 455.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f33…b313backed No | 66c | 450$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…66e6backed Yes | 23c | 441.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 15c | 426.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…edcabacked Yes | 4c | 424.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 15c | 334.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a7…4453backed Yes | 15c | 333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…4660backed No | 66c | 317.72$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 24c | 297$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…2de6backed Yes | 33c | 290$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 15c | 272$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7042…7085backed Yes | 16c | 267.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed No | 61c | 258.39$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…941ebacked No | 66c | 255$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ca…2bf7backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 78c | 250$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e8…3c90backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…0f62backed Yes | 18c | 249.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 15c | 212.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 186$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 18c | 180.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…12e7backed Yes | 29c | 174.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 70c | 172.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 69c | 146.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…4e27backed No | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 15c | 136.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 45c | 130$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 119.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 22c | 112.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 78c | 104.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes | 42c | 102.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 21c | 98.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 95.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 32c | 84.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…8695backed No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 60c | 73.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x136c…333ebacked No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…8cf6backed Yes | 31c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…2731backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…893abacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…e66bbacked Yes | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…bb63backed No | 62c | 48.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…812cbacked Yes | 31c | 48.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…054cbacked No | 64c | 31.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 40c | 29.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed No | 73c | 27.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 77c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 45c | 23.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…c1debacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.