Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb530bd1860f30cb97a52992e724cda8ab8c7dd6f75946c46a0a211ea8173bc36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 5,335$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…b53fbacked No | 65c | 1,123$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea3…37c7backed Yes | 2c | 925.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 31c | 862.7$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.66 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebec…3b11backed No | 68c | 337.54$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 33c | 291.83$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa538…fc53backed Yes | 38c | 289.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 258.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 32c | 201.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed No | 79c | 124.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 122.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 117$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 77c | 108.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…9d0abacked Yes | 31c | 96.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 70c | 92.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 24c | 86.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 55c | 70.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd301…49cdbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf38…1c97backed Yes | 29c | 57.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 55.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…42c4backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…c4c1backed No | 77c | 45.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 72c | 18.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 4?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 4?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on July 4?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on July 4?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on July 4?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.