Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaba1eb317e97a74537aebf0177b2c8922ec05405aea3c498482385531502975
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3df2…4e6cbacked No | 0c | 17,530$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 9,000$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,182$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 72c | 1,184$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.39 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…b06ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…6789backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 44c | 999.92$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.35 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…549abacked No | 66c | 990$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4caa…4290backed Yes | 32c | 973.83$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 36c | 721.43$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.46 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…de1ebacked No | 68c | 660$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0aacbacked No | 69c | 520$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Yes | 37c | 506.33$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…b53fbacked Yes | 25c | 494.34$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…370bbacked No | 69c | 480$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…42c4backed Yes | 61c | 419.68$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…dbdebacked No | 68c | 340$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc588…2949backed Yes | 22c | 200.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.95 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa538…fc53backed Yes | 39c | 172.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebec…3b11backed Yes | 32c | 148.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 78c | 112.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed Yes | 58c | 99.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 71c | 96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…24e0backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 18c | 80.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x010e…f4b5backed Yes | 36c | 68.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 49.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Yes | 68c | 44.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c4…aeb3backed Yes | 68c | 31.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…c4c1backed Yes | 69c | 31.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 59c | 27.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…b98abacked Yes | 76c | 25.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf38…1c97backed Yes | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 4?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 4?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on July 4?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on July 4?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on July 4?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.