Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfda3034623cf6dbeb17e253aa7c294523588a9afedb214219aa6be9eab3033e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 5,050$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.85 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 3,192$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 14c | 1,221$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.12 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 9c | 771.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 10c | 661.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8653…c109backed Yes | 24c | 359.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 35c | 282.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010e…f4b5backed Yes | 16c | 222.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 12c | 102$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 74c | 91.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…d173backed Yes | 11c | 87.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 19c | 78.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…d0fbbacked Yes | 25c | 67.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 66c | 42.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670c…04a3backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd233…2a70backed Yes | 49c | 38.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…c5b1backed Yes | 36c | 32.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on July 4?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 4?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 4?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.5–45.9% on July 4?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be 46.0–46.4% on July 4?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.