Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5203e23824656b4493b6d9b99791eb03621401f64d66f853e97b192456842e21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $752,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $431,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $752,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 10c | 41,115$4,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,246.85 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 4c | 24,818$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.45 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 14c | 24,346$3,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,433.96 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 10c | 22,087$2,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.55 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 8c | 18,655$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 3c | 12,000$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 21c | 10,000$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.26 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 23c | 9,710$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.05 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 9,410$7,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.55 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 25c | 8,951$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.32 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 8,696$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.18 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 19c | 8,508$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.95 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 17c | 8,500$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 8c | 8,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 8c | 7,837$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.78 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 6,952$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 6,580$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.02 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 7c | 6,563$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.63 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 18c | 6,485$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.14 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 21c | 5,846$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.45 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 19c | 5,822$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.6 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 12c | 5,113$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 70c | 4,988$3,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.48 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 6c | 4,800$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.2 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 31c | 4,600$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.41 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 31c | 4,024$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.71 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 4,000$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 27c | 3,967$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.26 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9978…a49ebacked Yes | 20c | 3,825$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,754$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.39 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 3,556$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.92 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 3,451$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.97 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 11c | 3,155$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.31 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 4c | 3,125$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 8c | 2,958$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.64 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 10c | 2,895$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.49 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 2,775$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…712bbacked Yes | 31c | 2,698$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 7c | 2,606$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.03 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 24c | 2,503$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.8 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 16c | 2,463$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.6 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 8c | 2,450$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.23 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 16c | 2,319$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.36 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,247$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.98 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 13c | 2,203$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,200$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.17 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 28c | 2,165$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…57d5backed Yes | 4c | 2,134$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 22c | 2,109$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.25 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 11c | 2,062$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.16 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 45c | 2,000$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.68 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 1,975$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.48 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 24c | 1,903$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.06 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 16c | 1,900$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 19c | 1,893$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.14 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 5c | 1,858$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 1,854$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…0204backed Yes | 1c | 1,853$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 29c | 1,834$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.69 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 20c | 1,810$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.62 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,800$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.85 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 13c | 1,718$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 26c | 1,624$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.3 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf448…37b3backed Yes | 12c | 1,610$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,609$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,525$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e27…4e9ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,445$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…a912backed Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +275.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,379$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 25c | 1,365$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.52 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 20c | 1,310$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.1 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes | 8c | 1,298$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,279$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.32 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 26c | 1,264$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 1,263$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.21 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,222$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.45 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 15c | 1,211$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.27 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 40c | 1,201$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.85 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 18c | 1,191$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 21c | 1,190$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,089$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c7…7f70backed Yes | 10c | 1,066$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…4263backed Yes | 12c | 1,052$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 19c | 1,033$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.18 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,009$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.06 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 13c | 1,001$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cc7abacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…7607backed Yes | 12c | 980.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 35c | 977$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.59 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 18c | 964.76$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.71 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 25c | 964.08$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 10c | 961.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…a7c9backed Yes | 40c | 901.89$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.92 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 23c | 855.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 22c | 840$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.5 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 14c | 838.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 24c | 836.84$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.