Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb61463dbe5161018a117a7e778b36d3bd561d2e1637f4c6568995475f0f2fa01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $605,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $605,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 3c | 44,057$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.43 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 30,247$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.36 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…be52backed Yes | 1c | 29,644$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 5c | 29,044$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.92 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 12c | 21,076$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,479.13 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 2c | 18,064$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.21 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 4c | 15,876$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.89 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 13,384$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.66 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 12,422$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 0c | 10,562$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 10c | 10,428$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 9,742$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.51 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 3c | 9,569$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.8 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 5c | 9,113$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 16c | 8,000$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,661$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.76 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 7,507$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.54 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,116$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.89 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 7c | 6,813$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.56 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 6c | 6,618$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.58 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 6c | 6,308$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.82 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 20c | 6,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 6,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 6c | 5,028$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 4c | 5,018$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 11c | 5,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 4c | 3,967$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 19c | 3,703$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 7c | 3,580$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.49 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3142…5ed7backed Yes | 4c | 3,455$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,298$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.67 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 10c | 2,437$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.69 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 5c | 2,419$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…1739backed Yes | 1c | 2,140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 11c | 2,102$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 1c | 1,864$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 1,820$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 1,801$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,749$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 1c | 1,742$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 1,740$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 4c | 1,615$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,511$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c39…d4c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,340$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…f5cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 5c | 1,190$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 15c | 1,142$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 9c | 1,096$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 5c | 1,079$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 1,050$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.71 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 999.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 2c | 877.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 16c | 872.63$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.62 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3558…8e1abacked Yes | 14c | 857.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…df80backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 3c | 832.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 9c | 812$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…da8ebacked Yes | 6c | 803.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3d9fbacked Yes | 17c | 800$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 2c | 766$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 9c | 750$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes | 5c | 749.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 14c | 663.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 18c | 650$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…929fbacked Yes | 20c | 625$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 20c | 608.45$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 606$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…af6bbacked Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…83b1backed Yes | 4c | 576.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 555.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…80c9backed Yes | 4c | 533.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…b50cbacked Yes | 6c | 527$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…fe06backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…42efbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…6257backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…d53ebacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Yes | 9c | 491.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…ec7dbacked Yes | 4c | 489.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…b65ebacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 12c | 468$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…1cfdbacked Yes | 7c | 450$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…3816backed Yes | 4c | 448$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 9c | 444.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 5c | 440.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 4c | 400.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752a…282fbacked Yes | 20c | 379.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…f657backed Yes | 5c | 372.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…c223backed Yes | 6c | 371$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.