Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96cdc6021114b3011fb8af9cd11f68d8495c2766090373aaa2f5b464199c2da7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $702,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $705,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $702,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 396 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 76c | 22,927$17,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,598.6 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 24c | 18,892$4,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,356.4 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 31c | 17,674$5,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,129.23 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 25c | 16,478$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,427.13 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 17c | 10,913$1,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,061.94 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 23c | 8,999$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,888.54 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 8,967$6,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,534.34 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 34c | 7,500$2,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 66c | 7,033$4,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,418.37 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 45c | 6,847$3,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,790.79 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 21c | 6,800$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,374.08 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 49c | 5,920$2,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,032.59 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed No | 9c | 5,894$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.25 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 25c | 5,652$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,221.98 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 60c | 5,438$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.98 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 21c | 5,006$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,967.93 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 68c | 4,501$3,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.02 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 4,238$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,050.47 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 22c | 4,231$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,288.83 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 33c | 4,134$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.59 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 29c | 3,967$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,834.84 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 80c | 3,785$3,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.32 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 30c | 3,619$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,518.53 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c92…1b05backed Yes | 70c | 3,312$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 3,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.54 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 27c | 3,278$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,376.86 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…619fbacked Yes | 31c | 3,181$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,181.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 20c | 3,161$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,518.97 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,445 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 36c | 2,874$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848.96 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 16c | 2,750$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.49 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 18c | 2,613$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.5 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 2,546$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.13 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 50c | 2,500$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 9c | 2,416$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.42 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 30c | 2,374$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.22 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 31c | 2,289$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.9 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…ca6abacked Yes | 26c | 2,278$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.58 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 26c | 2,180$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.93 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 30c | 2,040$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.87 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 33c | 2,028$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.98 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,020$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.5 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 2,010$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.6 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,912$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.49 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 14c | 1,896$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.48 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 1,886$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.38 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 26c | 1,756$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.17 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…07f1backed No | 70c | 1,717$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.06 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…49b5backed No | 73c | 1,715$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.09 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 25c | 1,706$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.97 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 70c | 1,530$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.97 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…a7c9backed Yes | 34c | 1,504$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.16 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…2224backed Yes | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…13cdbacked Yes | 37c | 1,474$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.72 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…3f34backed Yes | 68c | 1,455$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 40c | 1,350$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.63 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 30c | 1,210$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.98 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 26c | 1,157$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.28 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…712bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,143$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 1,083$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.8 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 59c | 1,079$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.75 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 23c | 1,063$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.16 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes | 48c | 1,054$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.13 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 66c | 1,049$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.16 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,043$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.56 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 27c | 1,031$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.39 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…a790backed Yes | 75c | 1,028$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 32c | 1,025$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.82 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…7607backed Yes | 37c | 1,015$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 77c | 1,009$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.03 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cc7abacked Yes | 21c | 999.73$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 35c | 998.46$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 52c | 977$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.36 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…a912backed Yes | 33c | 960$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +275.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 25c | 958$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.7 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 31c | 947.67$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.02 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 30c | 920.29$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.13 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 25c | 920.06$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.65 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 53c | 910.17$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.85 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 33c | 909.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.09 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…04f5backed No | 15c | 896.86$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 34c | 875.54$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.36 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 51c | 874.99$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.65 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 31c | 865$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.16 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 38c | 850.85$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.7 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…7198backed Yes | 12c | 850$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 29c | 796.13$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.13 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 36c | 786.58$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…3047backed Yes | 79c | 752.28$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.45 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 16c | 727.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.05 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 23c | 718.48$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.2 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 57c | 703.77$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.01 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 66c | 699.95$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.17 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 37c | 682.41$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.98 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 38c | 676.48$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.48 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…0a87backed Yes | 12c | 660.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.