Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e23dc7bc70dee7deabd3ecedb6110aeaae1f237896f5c0d19e0b561e5950b80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $849,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $360,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $849,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x431c…be52backed Yes | 0c | 115,175$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 5c | 31,404$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.07 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 2c | 28,691$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.57 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 26,700$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.67 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 7c | 19,482$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.97 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 18,523$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.7 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…5be9backed Yes | 0c | 17,020$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 6c | 14,013$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.21 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 11c | 9,721$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.78 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 5c | 9,563$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.14 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 7c | 9,000$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.55 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 8,870$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 7,832$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 9c | 7,758$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.49 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 7,169$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 7c | 6,909$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.52 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 6c | 6,873$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.41 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.6 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 6c | 5,775$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.77 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 7c | 5,410$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.98 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9c…1814backed Yes | 4c | 4,572$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 4,330$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 4,114$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.43 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 4,023$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.01 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 8c | 3,967$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.99 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 12c | 3,835$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.69 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 10c | 3,764$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.95 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 7c | 3,410$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 3,369$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.62 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 8c | 3,316$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.97 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 3,282$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.21 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 7c | 2,816$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.58 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…7607backed Yes | 12c | 2,670$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 6c | 2,625$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.73 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 4c | 2,611$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 21c | 2,537$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.66 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 6c | 2,412$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,351$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.11 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 6c | 2,325$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 9c | 2,217$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 73c | 2,192$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.05 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 2,100$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.05 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 6c | 1,920$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,914$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 8c | 1,876$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.28 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 8c | 1,862$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,770$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 11c | 1,769$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 6c | 1,711$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 2c | 1,685$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 1,634$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 4c | 1,600$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 10c | 1,578$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.69 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 1,471$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 6c | 1,437$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd674…8b2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,417$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,403$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…68c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 7c | 1,370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 2c | 1,362$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…57d5backed Yes | 17c | 1,360$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 6c | 1,339$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,254$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,100$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.82 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 5c | 1,075$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 18c | 1,032$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 7c | 941.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…49efbacked Yes | 5c | 918.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 13c | 905.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…d852backed Yes | 6c | 876.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 15c | 865.01$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…0597backed Yes | 19c | 861.09$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.54 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 5c | 834.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 10c | 828.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 11c | 769.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…af6bbacked Yes | 8c | 750$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 11c | 699.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…afa6backed Yes | 3c | 696.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 6c | 693.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…813abacked Yes | 4c | 681.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 9c | 641.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 5c | 619.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 4c | 600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 19c | 579.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 35c | 573.55$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 14c | 561.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 61c | 555$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.61 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 12c | 550$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…efb3backed Yes | 3c | 525.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…9686backed Yes | 6c | 508.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.