Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66012fd2dcf38e1fa0253c2e114d9db941732661a0879c3a32b25bf80a322229
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $549,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $549,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 34,846$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 25,841$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.04 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 16,717$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 16,468$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.14 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 13,192$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.7 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 3c | 11,154$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.8 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 4c | 9,140$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.9 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 8,012$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 3c | 7,519$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.87 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,382$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 7,138$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.45 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9c…1814backed Yes | 1c | 6,103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,485$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 3c | 5,040$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 2c | 4,780$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 3c | 4,773$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…7607backed Yes | 2c | 4,553$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 2c | 4,331$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 2c | 4,152$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 4,092$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 3c | 3,817$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 3c | 3,744$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,700$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 0c | 3,411$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 3c | 3,391$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 0c | 3,046$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 2c | 2,946$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd674…8b2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,918$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 1c | 2,810$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 4c | 2,695$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,695$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…8e97backed Yes | 3c | 2,668$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,617$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 2c | 2,501$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 4c | 2,495$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 2,466$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 3c | 2,330$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed Yes | 1c | 2,312$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 2,248$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,092$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…afa6backed Yes | 1c | 2,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.66 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…49b5backed Yes | 6c | 1,901$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,821$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 2c | 1,776$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 7c | 1,684$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.86 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 3c | 1,630$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…7198backed Yes | 2c | 1,564$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…57d5backed Yes | 3c | 1,549$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 5c | 1,535$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,504$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 4c | 1,435$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 5c | 1,428$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,398$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 1c | 1,386$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…b628backed Yes | 2c | 1,370$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…0597backed Yes | 4c | 1,334$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 3c | 1,234$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 5c | 1,205$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 3c | 1,175$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 1c | 1,130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 2c | 1,106$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,090$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,050$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…383abacked Yes | 2c | 949.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 2c | 931.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 3c | 890$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 3c | 866.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 3c | 860$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 2c | 859.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…c07cbacked Yes | 3c | 856.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 3c | 821.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf448…37b3backed Yes | 3c | 810.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f92…9a23backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1c…9faebacked Yes | 3c | 757.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 2c | 733$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 8c | 675.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 4c | 620$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 3c | 594.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…d53ebacked Yes | 2c | 583.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 3c | 537.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 525.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 6c | 515.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 2c | 505$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…bd89backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.