Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ea648e24e13e11961d21e31e141a88c909dc71207e43b866b122e88adfe5e9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $400,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 68,414$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.96 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…be52backed Yes | 0c | 30,945$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 3c | 27,112$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.8 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 2c | 22,643$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.65 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 20,803$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,825$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 1c | 10,001$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 0c | 6,152$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,874$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 3c | 5,611$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…7198backed Yes | 4c | 5,222$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 5,106$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 4,220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,343$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…80c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 2,655$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 2c | 1,124$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 1c | 799.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 746.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 3c | 591$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 2c | 530$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 3c | 459.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.