Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf76624fbb649080513c10b37368d1eda84ba2271af8d0427101c758db6181c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $576,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $576,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a9c…1814backed Yes | 0c | 41,057$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 32,519$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.43 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 22,577$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 18,214$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.77 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 0c | 15,319$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,340$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…e14dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,569$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 11,422$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…1b67backed Yes | 0c | 10,940$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 0c | 8,948$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 7,129$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…21f8backed Yes | 0c | 7,127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd010…6b0abacked Yes | 1c | 6,997$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…4ebebacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 1c | 5,600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 0c | 5,570$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 3c | 5,100$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 1c | 5,053$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…8d43backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 1c | 4,636$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…c223backed Yes | 1c | 4,620$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa746…8fbebacked Yes | 2c | 4,076$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 1c | 4,018$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,360$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,135$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 1c | 3,049$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 2,986$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…73dfbacked Yes | 0c | 2,639$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 1c | 2,623$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 1c | 2,586$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…42efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,442$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 1c | 2,415$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…e658backed Yes | 1c | 2,066$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…da8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,834$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…79bfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,830$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed Yes | 2c | 1,629$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 1c | 1,360$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,021$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 2c | 1,007$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 2c | 827.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 2c | 698.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 2c | 681.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…0597backed Yes | 2c | 673.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ed…5990backed Yes | 2c | 652.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 25–August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.