Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a7fd2012d28f3942d6fc77dbc4c49433ac299383adf41c3de81817f73a89ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $743,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $712,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $743,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 10c | 200,951$20,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,732.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…1149backed Yes | 12c | 38,982$4,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,701.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 9c | 19,909$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.58 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 14c | 14,280$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 8c | 13,500$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 10c | 11,197$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.04 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…5f17backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 13c | 7,505$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 15c | 6,000$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.84 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 4c | 4,873$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…58dbbacked Yes | 8c | 3,072$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 11c | 2,272$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.7 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,254$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.11 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 11c | 2,173$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.06 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,700$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 12c | 1,556$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.46 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,404$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.23 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 8c | 1,384$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 16c | 1,204$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.71 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 989.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 11c | 905.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 6c | 883$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…2f08backed Yes | 7c | 862.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 845.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 756.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 10c | 722.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…baacbacked Yes | 11c | 719$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 9c | 704.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 14c | 616.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…f6a8backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 7c | 345$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 9c | 337.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…1297backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 333$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 13c | 326$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 9c | 312.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 7c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 6c | 242.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 9c | 215.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 19c | 209$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Yes | 11c | 206.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 184.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 11c | 155$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 11c | 140.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 9c | 137.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 136$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…8f83backed Yes | 8c | 125.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…7ee2backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 113$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…f553backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 15c | 98.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…70c8backed Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 19c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked No | 78c | 28.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win Brooklyn in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win Queens in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.