Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b3bcaa651e203ad04523ce7612e09852ad7f30bdfbfd98df8581d187cbaa8f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49a7…5f17backed No | 1c | 20,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ee…752bbacked No | 6c | 14,516$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…610ebacked No | 3c | 10,297$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 13cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 2c | 6,977$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.42 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…7e9cbacked No | 5c | 6,335$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked No | 6c | 3,260$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3029…0ab1backed No | 4c | 3,257$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…2470backed No | 3c | 3,018$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 10c | 2,794$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.96 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 4c | 2,771$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 2,673$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…16d8backed No | 4c | 2,391$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 3c | 1,940$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…7684backed No | 8c | 1,219$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111d…c767backed No | 8c | 1,202$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 6c | 1,202$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 2c | 1,100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 3c | 1,091$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 10c | 1,056$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 5c | 844.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 4c | 767.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 6c | 568.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 8c | 523.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…1e90backed No | 3c | 505.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 4c | 503.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 5c | 443.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 7c | 428$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf688…a991backed No | 4c | 312.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 5c | 290$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 4c | 279.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…8e81backed No | 7c | 240.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed No | 5c | 214.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 17c | 166$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani win Manhattan in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win Brooklyn in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win Queens in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.