Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a7c7396e0e7a612ecfaaf2e4e6e517012794b90b4d3ed8e5ba6b5074458e983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $533,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $292,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $533,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 7c | 91,828$6,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,121.76 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 19c | 27,422$5,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,278.34 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 19,915$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.16 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 21c | 18,276$3,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,746.98 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 23c | 14,385$3,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,237.19 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 15c | 14,357$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.51 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 3c | 10,250$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.97 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 14c | 10,064$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.42 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 9c | 7,022$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.92 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 6,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 20c | 5,475$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.86 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 15c | 5,342$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.51 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 4,920$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.73 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 22c | 4,148$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.96 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 48c | 4,119$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.01 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 20c | 3,640$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.63 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 27c | 3,223$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.68 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 19c | 3,119$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.98 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 3,103$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.59 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 11c | 2,964$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.08 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,757$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.04 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…aac2backed Yes | 21c | 2,609$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 15c | 2,473$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.9 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9100…1bfbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,031$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…a7f0backed Yes | 7c | 1,938$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 22c | 1,843$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.57 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 15c | 1,800$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.36 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes | 20c | 1,734$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 21c | 1,558$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.48 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 46c | 1,553$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.52 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed Yes | 27c | 1,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 16c | 1,483$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 9c | 1,471$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 17c | 1,458$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…cc4cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,395$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed Yes | 6c | 1,321$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…c822backed Yes | 32c | 1,204$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 14c | 1,201$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.33 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 1,192$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 12c | 1,175$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.18 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,116$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 19c | 1,007$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 19c | 931.47$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.68 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 16c | 910$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…68e2backed Yes | 15c | 888$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed Yes | 5c | 887.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 9c | 881.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 8c | 863.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 9c | 861.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 24c | 847.12$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.31 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 20c | 800.33$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…7430backed Yes | 43c | 759.09$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked Yes | 13c | 755.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 7c | 738.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…3520backed Yes | 22c | 676.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 12c | 644.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 79c | 635.56$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 73c | 628.97$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 12c | 609.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 18c | 582.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…ef42backed Yes | 22c | 581.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ca…1552backed Yes | 18c | 558.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed Yes | 22c | 546.11$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…f4bbbacked Yes | 26c | 534.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 55c | 506.48$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.27 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 7c | 500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 498.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…d073backed Yes | 8c | 490.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 15c | 486.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 16c | 470.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 64c | 466.2$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.83 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 20c | 464$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…a80fbacked No | 80c | 450$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 9c | 421.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…1da6backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 14c | 385$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 12c | 385$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18db…fbc2backed Yes | 8c | 379.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…001fbacked Yes | 51c | 377.36$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3d9fbacked Yes | 18c | 376.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…8f76backed Yes | 8c | 376.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…809cbacked Yes | 27c | 375.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…a0e4backed Yes | 15c | 374.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…0764backed Yes | 19c | 355.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 7c | 347.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…42e5backed Yes | 9c | 345.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…af55backed Yes | 15c | 343.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 15c | 343.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…0597backed Yes | 18c | 339.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 43c | 324.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 25c | 324.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 12c | 322.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…bdf6backed No | 64c | 320$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?this page
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.