Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae76ccfdb5fe7cb719e805f46ae23c42484c8f74c9a4853449d23df524c71778
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $487,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $487,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 4c | 78,617$2,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,879.02 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 8c | 28,030$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.75 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 22,934$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.26 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 5c | 14,051$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.45 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 13,875$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 5c | 11,206$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.18 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 1c | 9,923$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 3c | 8,230$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.34 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 7,972$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.95 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 7,802$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.31 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 6c | 6,847$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.75 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 7c | 5,436$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.03 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 7c | 4,350$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.56 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…cc4cbacked Yes | 9c | 3,930$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 7c | 3,867$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.95 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 3,126$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.54 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,114$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.19 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 2,729$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.61 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…a0e4backed Yes | 8c | 2,669$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,350$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 14c | 2,335$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.25 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 11c | 1,900$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 6c | 1,708$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 8c | 1,638$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…2ab2backed Yes | 7c | 1,549$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,505$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 1,489$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 8c | 1,470$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,464$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 1,415$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 8c | 1,350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 8c | 1,347$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,285$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 6c | 1,271$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,216$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,044$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbb…f7c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 5c | 999.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 6c | 964.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 11c | 928.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 11c | 896.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 11c | 875.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 6c | 850$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked Yes | 12c | 833.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 9c | 824.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 6c | 809.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 8c | 800$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 11c | 740.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 10c | 737.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…563bbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed Yes | 5c | 679.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked Yes | 11c | 640$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 9c | 611.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 550$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 9c | 545.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ca…1552backed Yes | 11c | 539.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa688…c7b8backed Yes | 9c | 482.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 10c | 471.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 470$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…830abacked Yes | 7c | 457.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…d073backed Yes | 8c | 450$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 5c | 450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…f4bbbacked Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 13c | 435.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 14c | 428.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 10c | 417.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 10c | 413.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 6c | 399.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…31a4backed Yes | 8c | 366.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…3520backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 10c | 309.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 13c | 306.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…0597backed Yes | 7c | 294.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ed5abacked Yes | 5c | 278.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 8c | 275.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 9c | 266.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 10c | 261.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…03cebacked Yes | 7c | 222.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 6c | 216.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…a29abacked Yes | 9c | 215.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed Yes | 11c | 207.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf6…208fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 7c | 190.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 11c | 187$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 12c | 172.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a0…6a16backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…7430backed Yes | 13c | 135.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…a528backed Yes | 12c | 122.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…9657backed Yes | 13c | 116.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.