Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x136ffda73650159a44098719377cdac2e029ab514728f4d9c63312d751758b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $278,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 176,888$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.07 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…a1dabacked Yes | 1c | 7,300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +270.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 2c | 7,105$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa377…11b6backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…76ebbacked Yes | 1c | 4,150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 3,733$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 2c | 3,672$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,333$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,087$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 2c | 2,027$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,873$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,717$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3005…7a2dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,245$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,051$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 732.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 648.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 9c | 627.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d0…a1a0backed Yes | 4c | 556.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 4c | 512.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 3c | 496.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 3c | 387.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 3c | 383$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 3c | 375.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…6c81backed Yes | 5c | 203.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d1…6317backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.