Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa40992f2bf52d84f05f51def2f124cbb29c9cbfc5b65e7fdb14755fba2b0231b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $379,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $379,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 83,878$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.34 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 5c | 29,453$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.6 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 20,594$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.45 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 1c | 12,171$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.15 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.01 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 0c | 6,767$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed Yes | 1c | 6,214$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 10c | 5,879$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.36 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 7c | 5,058$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.72 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…65a1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 6c | 3,484$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.32 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,346$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,257$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.63 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 3,162$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.29 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 4c | 2,741$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 10c | 2,325$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.65 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…68e2backed Yes | 9c | 2,200$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 2,118$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.62 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.43 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 1,868$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 1,682$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0766…225ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,627$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,596$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 1,543$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 1c | 1,516$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ca…1552backed Yes | 2c | 1,281$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 11c | 1,257$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.29 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadbb…f7c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…9cb7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 6c | 999.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 975.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9100…1bfbbacked Yes | 11c | 946.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 915.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 8c | 900$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 11c | 879.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 3c | 870.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 9c | 826.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 823.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 6c | 792$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked Yes | 14c | 719.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 14c | 585.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 536.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 9c | 502.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 9c | 500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 4c | 449.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 7c | 435.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 5c | 422.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…76ebbacked Yes | 8c | 410.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 8c | 408.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 4c | 342.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…3520backed Yes | 12c | 327.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 7c | 321.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…31a4backed Yes | 6c | 320.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 4c | 270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 12c | 264.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 12c | 230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 8c | 228.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…d073backed Yes | 9c | 224.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed Yes | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 10c | 201.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…f4bbbacked Yes | 10c | 194.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 11c | 190.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 11c | 188.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed6…c6a9backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…1eeebacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…a528backed Yes | 13c | 165.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…b05dbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcc…cdc0backed Yes | 10c | 106.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed Yes | 12c | 100.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0835…4c91backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…f77bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024d…588abacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…976fbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…b08abacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce4…6a8bbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.