Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ac48abb330a0d475551fe0b122fa22bdf4a7983ce7c7f42a1e3cc76abec35ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 138,572$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.57 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 21,095$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.46 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 11,005$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 9c | 4,754$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.56 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 4,110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e0…5d24backed Yes | 1c | 4,089$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 3,279$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…95bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,460$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,250$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,164$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 999.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 2c | 999.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked Yes | 11c | 884.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 852.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 9c | 850$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 9c | 609.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 9c | 509.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc193…872dbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6400backed Yes | 2c | 472.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 11c | 358.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…1eeebacked Yes | 9c | 292.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 9c | 285.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3005…7a2dbacked Yes | 10c | 273.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 11c | 217.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40c…a528backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 166.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…f4bbbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 10c | 158.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 9c | 121.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…b05dbacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…177fbacked Yes | 10c | 106.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…21d7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…8258backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed Yes | 11c | 96.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…cf59backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab71…73c7backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8486…7f27backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.