Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c7d28659310de1bcffb52f14911f439094905e8a72dd1f341617bd0e20bc5e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $954,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $948,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $954,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 575 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 63c | 35,455$22,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,256.11 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 24c | 24,029$5,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,308.85 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 19,480$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,987.64 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 65c | 17,459$11,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,158.14 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 61c | 17,012$10,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,638.13 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 0c | 15,899$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed No | 74c | 14,935$11,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,022.38 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 18c | 14,737$2,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,157.77 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 63c | 12,729$8,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,652.9 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 9,775$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Yes | 25c | 9,198$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,853.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed No | 46c | 7,942$3,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,668.68 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc837…8ef6backed Yes | 45c | 7,559$3,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,187.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 40c | 7,331$2,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,373.22 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 25c | 6,964$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,206.81 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b9…0a94backed Yes | 65c | 6,840$4,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,417.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 59c | 6,795$4,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762.77 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 33c | 6,225$2,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,152.51 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 6,149$2,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,130.53 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 65c | 5,673$3,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.26 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 15c | 5,505$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,680.8 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 69c | 5,324$3,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.33 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed No | 30c | 5,191$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.5 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…73cabacked Yes | 73c | 5,037$3,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.95 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 68c | 5,020$3,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.27 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 23c | 4,219$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.23 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 21c | 4,143$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,278.15 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 38c | 4,128$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.01 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes | 47c | 4,118$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,170.07 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked No | 19c | 4,000$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…4e19backed No | 47c | 3,839$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 56c | 3,769$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.41 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 19c | 3,658$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,972.4 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 3,603$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,284.91 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked Yes | 77c | 3,530$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.41 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,146$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,938.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 73c | 3,080$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.69 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…8371backed Yes | 63c | 3,017$1,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 77c | 2,961$2,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.05 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed No | 48c | 2,897$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.69 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 73c | 2,799$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.54 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…929fbacked No | 66c | 2,757$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.97 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…aac2backed Yes | 57c | 2,667$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 14c | 2,637$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.31 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 31c | 2,542$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.28 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 72c | 2,479$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.47 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 75c | 2,384$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.38 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 2,330$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.48 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 52c | 2,318$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.83 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 16c | 2,193$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.63 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 21c | 2,141$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.88 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 61c | 2,062$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.34 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 8c | 2,040$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.55 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 53c | 1,883$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 76c | 1,856$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.58 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 15c | 1,817$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.05 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…a38ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,781$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 55c | 1,673$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.9 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a54ebacked No | 28c | 1,670$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,661$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.93 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 20c | 1,567$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.2 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,526$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.19 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked No | 38c | 1,500$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.5 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked No | 66c | 1,445$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.01 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 28c | 1,412$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.24 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked No | 65c | 1,388$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 54c | 1,352$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.51 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 27c | 1,346$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.51 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed No | 45c | 1,307$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.16 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…a41abacked Yes | 74c | 1,208$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…3520backed Yes | 34c | 1,194$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 7c | 1,180$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.75 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 52c | 1,126$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.61 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 50c | 1,110$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.45 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,099$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.32 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 56c | 1,093$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 36c | 1,054$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.48 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 1,037$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.48 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed Yes | 42c | 1,003$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.04 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 54c | 1,001$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.29 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.52 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 53c | 999.83$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.6 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked Yes | 70c | 991.58$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed No | 3c | 987$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…68e2backed Yes | 56c | 887.99$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 47c | 885.37$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.6 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 45c | 869.32$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.78 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 49c | 849.03$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.99 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 20c | 844.92$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.85 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd4…4bfcbacked Yes | 73c | 816.54$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 43c | 803.18$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.55 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…001fbacked Yes | 70c | 800.36$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.43 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 58c | 786.6$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.26 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 7c | 760.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.18 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked No | 32c | 756.22$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.44 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 4c | 750$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.25 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 34c | 749.99$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.74 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 40c | 736.11$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.27 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 14c | 724.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400–424 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–449 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600–624 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 15–August 22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.